Trump’s Twin Tests and Three Civil Wars - Gaza, Conservatism, and the Civil Wars of the 21st Century
The Harder Parts of Peace
In a recent New York Times article titled “Give Trump the Nobel for Gaza if He Does the Harder Parts to Come,” Thomas Friedman rightly identified the immense challenges that lie ahead in establishing lasting peace and normal relations between Palestine and Israel. He argued that the cessation of hostilities and Israel’s halt to military operations in Gaza are merely the first steps. The far greater task, Friedman noted, lies in full-scale nation-building in Gaza—reconstructing civilian infrastructure, forming a stable and trusted government, and managing a transitional administration capable of maintaining order while earning public confidence.
Equally crucial, he emphasized, is addressing Israel’s deep-seated fears that Hamas might regroup and strike again, making trust-building a fragile and painstaking process. In this context, the coming months will severely test Donald Trump’s resolve, competence, and patience. Whether he is temperamentally suited to pursue these long-term, incremental measures—to move from a ceasefire to a sustainable peace—remains to be seen.
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Read this article in Substack
https://sukiraninsights.substack.com/p/trumps-twin-tests-and-three-civil
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Trump and the Burden of Long-Term Diplomacy
On a slightly different note, it must be understood that Trump’s presidency represents the last major opportunity for American conservatives to leave a lasting and constructive mark on the nation—one that resonates beyond the echo chambers of fringe right-wing commentators, agitated evangelicals, or those haunted by apocalyptic visions of America’s decline. If Trump’s administration fails on the domestic front—if it cannot fulfill the promises he made or address the social and economic discontents he highlighted as the failures of previous Democratic leadership—then it may usher in a long interregnum before another Republican president emerges.
Thus, both at home and abroad, the test before Trump is not one of rhetoric or spectacle but of endurance, prudence, and moral clarity. His success or failure will determine not only the trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process but also the future shape of American conservatism itself.
Three Civil Wars Within
Across three societies—Israel, Palestine, and the United States—there are civil wars of a different kind: not fought with armies, but with identities, ideologies, and competing visions of nationhood. Each is divided within itself, struggling to decide what kind of country it wishes to be, and what values will guide its future.
Israel: Democracy or Theocracy
In Israel, the conflict is unfolding on legal and constitutional lines. Society is split between those who want to preserve Israel as a liberal, constitutional democracy—as it was founded to be, a rare democratic state in an authoritarian region—and those on the extreme right, now integral to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, who seek to turn it into a theocratic and authoritarian nation. Their goal is to erase the political and cultural identity of Palestinians and to deny the rights of Arab citizens of Israel. In this sense, their absolutist vision mirrors that of Hamas, for both reject coexistence and the legitimacy of the other’s existence.
Palestine: Coexistence or Absolutism
In Palestine, too, there is a civil war of purpose and principle. It divides those who accepted the Oslo Accords and remain committed to the two-state solution—those ready to work for coexistence and gradual reconciliation—from those who reject all compromise and glorify violence as the only means of resistance. The moderate and democratic Palestinian voices may be smaller in number and weaker in political strength, yet they remain indispensable. A lasting peace can only be achieved if Israel and the United States engage with these moderates, just as they must rely on moderate, constitutional, democratic forces within Israel itself.
America’s Civil War of Identity
At a broader level, the United States is also witnessing a civil war of ideas, values, and identity. On one side are the adherents of the MAGA movement, who view Donald Trump as the savior of America’s “true” identity. They believe greatness can be restored through isolationism, by imposing harsh restrictions even on legal immigration, and by reviving the old mercantilist idea that national prosperity depends on protectionism and industrial nationalism. On the other side are those who believe that America’s peace and prosperity depend on openness—on meaningful engagement with the world, on welcoming talent from across the globe, and on sustaining a peaceful, prosperous international order in cooperation with democratic allies, especially in Europe.
Between these two Americas lies a deep and enduring divide. As in Israel and Palestine, this is not merely a political battle—it is existential. Each society is engaged in an inward struggle over the meaning of freedom: whether it will remain open, plural, and civic, or turn inward, exclusionary, and tribal.
The Last Conservative Chance
Trump’s presidency, then, sits at the crossroads of all these tensions. The choices he makes in Gaza will determine whether diplomacy can triumph over vengeance; the choices he makes at home will decide whether American conservatism can evolve beyond grievance into constructive renewal. The test is ultimately the same in all three societies: whether reason can prevail over resentment, and whether politics can once again serve the higher purpose of freedom rather than the lower impulse of fear.
Please do read the full article
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/opinion/trump-israel-nobel-gaza.html
Further reading
Will Israel escape civil war? Even if it does, it will surely lose its soul
Israel’s Gaza Campaign Is Making It a Pariah State.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/opinion/international-world/friedman-israel-gaza-hamas.html
The Two-State Mirage: How to Break the Cycle of Violence in a One-State Reality
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/two-state-mirage-gaza-palestinians-lynch
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For more essays on early American ideals, Indian political thought, and the moral crises of our age, explore my Substack — a space for serious readers of history, philosophy, and statesmanship.
https://sukiraninsights.substack.com/
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