A reflection on what changed, what did not, and what can never change
Two years after October 7, the ruins of Gaza and the fractures of Israel mirror each other in despair, reminding us that war changes everything yet resolves nothing. Beneath the shifting tides of politics and power, one truth endures: neither people can erase the other, however hard their leaders try. What remains is the unfinished struggle to turn coexistence in hostility into coexistence in dignity.
It’s hard to believe that two years have already passed since October 7, 2023. For many of us, the memories of that day still feel raw, as if the news broke only yesterday. But anniversaries are moments not just to remember — they are also moments to ask harder questions about what has truly changed and what has not.
On the second anniversary of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israeli citizens, it becomes imperative to pause and reflect—not only on the enormity of what transpired that day but also on the deeper, longer arcs it set in motion. What truly changed in the landscape of Israeli-Palestinian relations, and what stubbornly remained the same? What could never change, given the hard realities of geography, history, and identity? And what lies in the shifting terrain of regional and global alignments between supporters of Israel and those who stand for the Palestinian cause?
These are not simply questions of policy or power; they are questions of memory, legitimacy, and the future contours of a conflict that continues to shape the Middle East and reverberate across the world for better or worse.
To grasp the weight of these questions, we have to confront the grim realities on the ground—figures that are widely reported yet fiercely disputed. Without reckoning with the truth—even when blurred by war and violence—there can be no progress. And without the pursuit of peace, progress itself has no meaning.
What happened?
What followed October 7 was an eruption of violence that has altered the region in ways both immediate and enduring. On that day, Hamas and its supporters carried out an attack inside Israel that left roughly 1,200 people dead and about 250 abducted. Two years later, 48 of those hostages remain in captivity. According to Palestinian health authorities, more than 67,000 militants and civilians have been killed.
Over half of Gaza’s population has been displaced since the conflict began, many uprooted multiple times. The territory’s infrastructure has been shattered—roads, schools, hospitals, and public services lie in ruins. Gaza’s social fabric, too, has been torn apart: families scattered, communities fractured, futures foreclosed. Movement remains heavily restricted, and Arab states have largely resisted accepting displaced Gazans, leaving a besieged population trapped in cycles of devastation and despair. It is against this backdrop that we must ask: what has truly changed, what has not, and what can never change in this enduring conflict?
What actually changed?
So let us come to the first question: what actually changed in these two years? Two years after the attacks, Gaza lies in ruins. Its people are exhausted, its society fractured, its infrastructure in collapse. The hope of renewal has all but vanished. Millions lack even the most basic necessities of life. What is unfolding in Gaza is nothing less than a grave violation of fundamental human rights and a profound affront to the principles the United Nations was meant to uphold.
According to a recent Reuters report, more than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 2023, with nearly one-third of the victims under the age of 18, according to Gaza’s health authorities. The health ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Israeli officials have stated that at least 20,000 of the dead were Hamas fighters. If these figures are taken at face value, this would suggest that approximately 47,000 civilians have lost their lives in the course of eliminating 20,000 militants—a striking civilian-to-combatant ratio, especially when considered against the roughly 1,500 Israeli civilians killed on October 7.
The humanitarian toll is further underscored by the findings of international organizations. According to the United Nations Satellite Centre, approximately 193,000 buildings in Gaza have been destroyed. The health and education sectors have been particularly devastated: 213 hospitals and 1,029 schools have been targeted. The World Health Organization reports that only 14 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals remain even partially functional, with those in southern Gaza completely overwhelmed. The United Nations further notes that only about 18 percent of the Gaza Strip—areas not under displacement orders or militarized zones—remains accessible for civilians. Since Israel expanded its military campaign in mid-August this year, the UN has recorded more than 417,000 additional displacements from north to south. These figures, drawn from reliable international organizations such as the WHO and the UN, provide a stark picture of the devastation and the scale of the humanitarian crisis.
Let us continue with what actually changed after October 7. Beyond the stark facts of destruction and loss of life on both sides of the border—disproportionately borne by the Palestinians—there have been significant geopolitical consequences. Chief among them, Israel lost the momentum it had built toward normalizing relations with key Arab partners. Before the Hamas attack, Israel appeared well-positioned to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia and to consolidate its ties with the Gulf states. Yet the scale and nature of Israel’s military response have left it increasingly isolated in its Arab neighborhood. The situation is not without precedent: much as the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, justified in the name of democracy promotion and regime change, eroded American credibility and strained its Western alliances, Israel’s campaign in Gaza has similarly disrupted its diplomatic trajectory in the region.
What did not change?
Now let us turn to what did not change, And yet, amid all this upheaval, some elements of the conflict have remained stubbornly the same. Even after the deaths of more than 67,000 Palestinians, Israelis are no more secure, no closer to peace, and no nearer to a sense of justice. Israeli society today is more agitated, more divided, and more polarized than before. On the Palestinian side, too, the aftermath of the October 7 attacks has brought no improvement to daily life. Whatever official proclamations Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may make from international platforms like the United Nations, the reality is stark: for both peoples, conditions of life, political stability, and basic security have only deteriorated—not merely remained stagnant.
What remains unchanged is that the distance to any genuine solution has widened. A permanent resolution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict remains as elusive as ever. This is due, in no small measure, to the absence of political will and genuine intent on the part of the United States—the only power with the influence and leverage to meaningfully alter the trajectory of the conflict, if it were prepared to use its full weight in pursuit of peace.
What will never change?
What will never change is that neither Hamas nor extremists on the Israeli side can wish away the existence of millions of people on the other side. Neither can hope to rule the land entirely, from the river to the sea. What will also persist is the pull of radicalism: whether overt or subtle, major or minor, the scourge of extremist politics will continue to shape the Israeli Palestinian conflict for generations to come.
A major part of the tragedy in the Israel–Palestine conflict lies in the political realities of the United States. Domestic politics there are bitterly polarized, with a heightened risk of instability at home. In such a climate, it is unrealistic to expect any American president—least of all Donald Trump—to summon the will and credibility to act as an honest broker committed to resolving the conflict once and for all. This absence of a credible mediator is one of the reasons why the conflict remains so intractable.
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Where should it lead?
So, what is the path forward? Let us be very honest, neither overly optimistic nor unduly pessimistic. Human societies cannot live forever in a state of fear and anxiety. Palestinians have endured the worst forms of state-led violence, yet they also bear responsibility for accepting Hamas as their governing authority. Israelis, in turn, cannot escape responsibility for choosing a leadership that prioritizes endless war over a peace built on honor, security, and mutual respect.
Perceptive New York Times foreign affairs columnist Thomas Friedman captures the complexity of the moment:
“In a lifetime of covering this conflict, I have never seen it broken into so many little pieces, each soaked in more distrust and hatred of the other than ever before. Aggregating these pieces together to implement this complex plan for a cease-fire, phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, hostage release, Palestinian prisoner release and then rebuilding of the Strip under international supervision will be a herculean task. It will require solving a diplomatic Rubik’s Cube every day — while all the enemies of the deal try to scramble it every day.”
Resolving such a diplomatic Rubik’s Cube requires more than negotiations or external mediation—it demands the recognition of a fundamental truth. Neither side can be erased. Neither brutal terrorist attacks by Hamas nor the disproportionate military campaigns of the Israeli government can eliminate the other. Any sustainable peace must begin with this acknowledgment, however fragile, and with the cultivation of trust sufficient to move from coexistence in hostility to coexistence in dignity.
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